Predictions, estimates and conjectures

A space for informed insight of the near future

Decision making in the face of the unknown

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The Importance of Judgement

The most important life skill uncovered over the tumultuous last two years of the pandemic is judgement. From leadership of countries and companies all the way down to how one navigates their own daily life, judgement is the indispensable skill that differentiates between successful and poor outcomes.

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Ensemble Forecasts is a place for actionable forecasts that are...

Specific with a yes or no answer

Measurable with a clear correct or incorrect result

Short term in timing

Relevant for people to make decisions

My final answer even in the face of considerable uncertainty

Deeply considered and backed with the underlying rationale

About the predictions

Predictions are made by a curious individual always looking to learn

I confess that I’m not an expert in any one subject. However, I am intellectually curious and never stop learning and always question my assumptions. I trust that there are others out there that know more than I do, so I spend my time sifting through the noise of other opinions and using my judgement.

Combined with a career in finance where uncertainty is the rule of the day and an engineering education where logic and problem solving are the keys to success, I’m trying to put together my honest assessment of where I think the world is headed.

Predictions are developed from a wide range of sources

My most important source of information comes from editorials and opinion pieces. Research papers, books and the news are great sources of facts, but are backwards looking, and to make decisions, we need to be look to the future. Broadening my perspective by evaluating all the voices in the room helps me understand the potential range of outcomes.

Models and statistics are useful tools to help frame the question, but probabilities do not lend themselves well to decisions, particularly in the face of new events. I incorporate them where I can, but ultimately, human judgement makes the call.

Predications are a commitment

One of the issues with the evidence based reasoning found in science is that it is backwards looking in nature. As a result, experts and pundits are too often hesitant to put their names on the line when making predictions and waffle with ambiguous statements that help no one.

Ultimately, in the face of an uncertain future, I incorporate all the learnings and experience that I’ve accumulated and overlay it with judgement and intuition. To take action with speed and decisiveness, we need clarity and confidence about how the future will evolve.