About Ensemble Forecasts

Ensemble Forecasts is a “metacritic” or “wirecutter” for forecasts – a space to aggregate the predictions for the future from experts, betting markets, models and other sources to track over time. However, it is not enough to simply put down a table of forecasts from experts and models. Ultimately, I want an answer, and I will use human judgement to analyze and assess all the potential answers and determine the most likely answer. 

I’m a former professional investor who was was inundated with questions from family and friends about markets and what it meant for their financial future during the wild market swings of 2020 and 2021, and was sorely disappointed by the lack of committed, actionable, yes/no forecasts made by respected pundits and opinion makers.

Predictions include forecasts about markets, economics, pandemics, travel, pricing, and whatever else comes to mind. We commit to making specific forecasts with a fixed timeline and will monitor and review them over time. By making a discrete forecast and putting it down for all to see, my credibility is on the line, but this is a risk that I’m willing to take in order to fill the current void where the loudest voice in the room ends up being the only piece of information that normal people use to make decisions.

Personally, I have an education in engineering and worked in finance over the course of my career. But more importantly, I know I’m not the smartest person in the room, but I do try to be the best prepared. I read as much as I can and try to understand the limitations of each argument and the assumptions behind each view point. I’ve spent a lot of time with models and numbers as well, but respect that at the end of the day, human judgement is required to combine both soft and hard data points to come to a single decision.

My hope for this site and my newsletter is to help others make informed decisions. I absolutely cannot promise that I’ll always be right, but I hope to provide a well reasoned, actionable opinion based on a wide panel of sources to help others prepare for the future.

Please reach out to community@ensembleforecasts.com if you have any suggestions, comments, or questions. 

As a side note, Ensemble Forecasts refers to the technique of combining disparate methodologies for forecasting to arrive at a single forecast that represents the best estimate.