Frequently Asked Questions​

Ensemble Forecasts is a site for aggregating predictions from experts and then using my judgement to narrow the range of outcomes down to a single answer. One of the things that I’ve noticed is that experts are afraid to put their credibility on the line and refuse to state their best guess for the future. Instead they hem and haw, hedging their responses with maybes and probabilities, and choosing instead to talk about the past and what has happened instead of what will.

I am an intellectually curious person who spends a lot of time professionally and personally thinking about what will happen in the future. With Ensemble Forecasts, I want to put down my predictions for the future with a discrete forecast (backed up by my reasoning) to help others make decisions and track how they do over time.

My background is in finance and engineering, so naturally I gravitate towards predictions related to markets, economics, business and science. Markets and economics tend to be a graveyard for forecasters and scientists tend to be rather backwards looking and reactive as opposed to forward looking with a mindset of making decisions with the best available information. I hope to crack the seal on these discussions and open up the considerations for everyone to see.

However, I’m not planning on limiting the scope of discussions here. You’ll see predictions that I’ll make on milestones that my kids will hit and you’ll see predictions for things like prices in the grocery story or how the drought in California will turn out.

I don’t profess to get all my forecasts right. With all forecasts, human judgement is the most important element, and your judgement for which forecasts you agree with is critical here. Not only do I attempt to provide a discrete answer to the question, but I also hope to outline the considerations and balance of risks that help inform the decision. At the end of the day, my hope is that a well reasoned conversation combined with intuition and your own assessment will help you make your own decision.

I hope you find my predictions and the conversations around the prediction helpful for framing your own decision making. I assume no liability for any of the decisions you make based on my predictions, so it is imperative that you own your own decision making. That being said, my hope is to provide answers to urgent questions that others avoid, and to help you take action in helping you to achieve your own goals.

It’s a common adage in global macro finance that there are 2-3 major events per year that matter, and the rest is just noise. If you get those events right, then you’ve solved the year. Personally, I think I’ve been pretty good with those calls, but with this project, I hope to find out just how good my predictions are. In short, we will find out.